From the Sensex pack, Bharti Airtel, Titan, Tata Consultancy Services, Hindustan Unilever, Infosys, Nestle, Reliance Industries, Mahindra & Mahindra, HDFC Bank and Tata Motors were the biggest gainers. However, IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finance and UltraTech Cement were the laggards.
The Indian economy recovered from the Covid-induced downturn during 2022 and is poised for further improvement in the coming quarters though downside risks emanating from geopolitical tensions, strengthening dollar and elevated inflation will continue. The positive trajectory in the growth trend and improved fundamentals will help the nation in neutralising the impact of global headwinds which are expected to have a bearing on the country's exports in the months to come. The challenges before the government and the Reserve Bank in the new year would be to arrest inflation, check declining value of rupee against US dollar and promote private investment and growth, with a view to ensure that the country remains one the fastest growing major economies of the world.
'No retaliatory tariffs now. You can retaliate after a few months.' 'Today, there is no need to retaliate because it is a question of long term benefits.'
If Beijing succeeds in this multipronged effort to challenge the current dominant power, it will have not just economic but political and security consequences. There is no let-up in the South China Sea nor any de-escalation moves on the India-China border. This portends to ominous signalling from Beijing, observes China expert Srikanth Kondapalli.
The US has sanctioned an Indian national based in the United Arab Emirates and two India-based entities for operating as part of Iran's shadow fleet and involved in shipping Iranian oil. The US Department of the Treasury said Jugwinder Singh Brar, who owns multiple shipping companies, operates as part of Iran's shadow fleet, which the US said is used to evade sanctions and transport Iranian oil. Brar also owns or controls India-based shipping company Global Tankers Private Limited and petrochemical sales company B and P Solutions Private Limited. The sanctions come as part of a US campaign of maximum pressure on Iran and target the country's petroleum and petrochemical sectors.
The US Fed rate cut of 50 basis points is unlikely to have any significant impact on foreign inflows into India, Economic Affairs Secretary Ajay Seth said on Thursday. He said the US Federal Reserve has done what it assesses is good for the largest economy in the world, but the RBI will take a decision on interest rate cut keeping the Indian economy in mind. "It is a positive for the global economy, including the Indian economy. "It is a 50 basis points cut from a high level.
A government official said India and the US are exploring an interim trade deal within 90 days.
From the Sensex pack, Zomato, IndusInd Bank, NTPC, Infosys, HCL Technologies, Titan, Power Grid, Hindustan Unilever, Tech Mahindra and ITC were among the gainers. On the other hand, Reliance Industries, Nestle India, Tata Motors, Adani Ports, Tata Steel, UltraTech Cement and Kotak Mahindra Bank were the laggards.
'April 9 announcement of slapping a 125% tariff on Chinese goods has brought the focus back to China, making this new phase feel like a repeat of the original conflict.'
Most Indian chief executives are optimistic about the economy and believe it would improve in the coming 12 months, said a survey by consulting and auditing firm PwC on Tuesday. The company's 27th annual global survey polled 4,702 chief executive officers (CEOs) in 105 countries and territories, including 79 in India, from October 2 to November 10, 2023. As many as 86 per cent of CEOs in India - 30 per cent higher than a year ago - are confident that the economy would improve.
From the Sensex firms, Tata Steel, Power Grid, NTPC, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Reliance Industries and Adani Ports were among the biggest gainers. Asian Paints and Tata Consultancy Services were the only laggards.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted above-normal rainfall for the upcoming monsoon season in India (June to September). The cumulative rainfall is estimated to be 105 percent of the long-period average. The IMD has also ruled out the possibility of El Nino conditions during the entire season. The monsoon is crucial for India's agriculture sector, which supports the livelihood of a significant portion of the population and contributes substantially to the country's GDP. However, while the prediction of normal rainfall brings relief, climate change is expected to cause variations in rainfall distribution.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25 percent, marking the first reduction in five years. The central bank also projected GDP growth for fiscal year 2026 at 6.7 percent and inflation to come down to 4.2 percent in FY26 from 4.8 percent in FY25. The RBI said the global economic backdrop remains challenging but the Indian economy continues to remain strong and resilient.
According to the BofA-ML Fund Manager Survey for January, asset allocators assigning more funds to equities than at any time since February 2011, while their confidence in the world's economic outlook has reached its most positive level since April 2010.
Investors should avoid making drastic changes to their asset allocation during a market correction.
Chinese manufacturing prowess and its dominance in the strategic sector will have a bearing on India's growth projection in the medium term and its march to become a developed nation by 2047, the Economic Survey said on Friday. The Survey has said India needs to grow at 8 per cent for about two decades to become a developed nation by 2047, but it will have to face challenges from global developments and reliance on Chinese imports.
The State Bank of India (SBI), in its research, has estimated GDP growth during the current financial year (2024-25) to be 6.3 per cent, assuming that the NSO does not make major revisions to the erstwhile first and second quarter estimates.
Ahead of the Union Budget for 2023-24, Budget makers have welcomed the global consensus view that India will remain one of the bright spots in calendar year 2023. But there is some alarm over the grim global situation and how that might impact the Centre's projections and assessments for next financial year. The big global headwinds include a deep and sustained recession in the West, including India's biggest trading partners in North America and Europe, continuing volatility in commodity markets, and renewed Covid-19 fears, as lifting of strict curbs by China could potentially lead to a massive spread again.
'Whatever we do, the purpose will be to re-establish deterrence.'
Indian economy to grow at 6.3-6.8 pc in FY26, against 6.4 pc in FY25
India and the US are expected to have smooth trade negotiations after US President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had a productive meeting during Modi's visit to the White House last month, Stephen A Schwarzman, chairman, chief executive officer, and co-founder of one of the world's largest alternative investment firms, Blackstone Group, said in Mumbai on Wednesday.
Wholesale price inflation eased to 2.05 per cent in March, as against 2.38 per cent in February, government data showed on Tuesday. The wholesale price index (WPI) based inflation, however, rose year-on-year.
Gold price outlook 2025: Gold prices that have climbed over 30 per cent so far in 2024 to Rs 7,300 per gram in the Indian markets (up 28 per cent in dollar terms till November-end), are set for their best calendar year performance in 10 years, suggests a recent report by World Gold Council (WGC). However, this stellar run, analysts believe, may not carry through till the end of 2025 in the backdrop of economic and geopolitical headwinds.
Unless something changes, Mr Trump is a huge threat right now, which is perhaps not being recognised fully, cautions Debashis Basu.
The Trump administration has revoked Harvard University's eligibility to enrol foreign students, raising concerns over the legal status of thousands of students, including nearly 800 from India, currently enrolled at the varsity.
'The startup ecosystem, the government, and the owners of large pools of Indian capital need to actively support the creation of these local champions, not pull down the teams that are trying hard to get there.'
Nita Ambani, IOC member and Reliance Foundation Chairperson, celebrated cricket's return to the Olympics at the 2028 Los Angeles Games.
Trump's sweeping tariffs and penalties on China-built ships have turned global shipping into the front line of economic war, observes Shyam G Menon.
India's services sector activity witnessed a sharp uptick in February boosted by improving domestic and international demand, which resulted in a quicker expansion in output and a substantial increase in employment, a monthly survey said on Wednesday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services PMI Business Activity Index rose from January's 26-month low of 56.5 to 59.0 in February, indicating a sharp rate of expansion.
S&P Global Ratings on Wednesday said the impact of the US reciprocal tariff will be limited on India as the economy is domestically oriented with less reliance on exports. YeeFarn Phua, Director, Sovereigns and International Public Finance Ratings, Asia-Pacific S&P Global also said India will clock a 6.7-6.8 per cent GDP growth over the next two years.
Acutely conscious that he's left with less than four years to create his legacy, Trump is undoubtedly a man in a hurry, observes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
The United States and Ukraine have signed an 'economic partnership agreement,' giving Washington, DC access to Ukraine's rare earth minerals in return for creating an investment fund in the country, CNN reported.
India has been relatively insulated from the severe headwinds in the West. However, with a third of the global economy expected to slip into recession in calendar year 2023, the impact will strongly be felt on India's exports and trade economy, leading economists said in a panel discussion at the Business Standard BFSI Insight Summit in Mumbai on Wednesday. The panel comprised former Reserve Bank of India executive director and former Monetary Policy Committee member Mridul Saggar, State Bank of India Chief Economic Advisor Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Citibank India Chief Economist Samiran Chakraborty, ICRA Chief Economist Aditi Nayar, and IndusInd Bank Chief Economist Gaurav Kapoor. The topic of the panel discussion was No recession in sight: Is India decoupled from developed economies?
Moody's Ratings on Tuesday said India has a lower overall exposure to the US relative to others in the APAC region, although certain sectors such as food, textiles and pharmaceutical products face risks. Moody's said most companies in its rated portfolio are domestic-focused with limited exposure to the US market.
While this will incur a revenue loss amounting to 0.2 per cent of GDP, it will provide a strong boost to consumer sentiment and spending, points out Rajani Sinha.
The Indian economy is projected to grow at 6.3 per cent in current financial year aided by investment and domestic demand. According to a World Bank report released on Tuesday, India continues to show resilience against the backdrop of a challenging global environment. In India, which accounts for the bulk of South Asia region, growth is expected to remain robust at 6.3 per cent in 2023-24, India Development Update of the World Bank said.
Citing various macroeconomic parameters that are doing pretty well, India's G20 Sherpa and former CEO of Niti Aayog Amitabh Kant projected that the country is all set to overtake Japan as 4th largest economy in the world by 2025. The size of India's GDP is currently ranked 5th, after the US, China, Germany, and Japan. It overtook the UK in 2022.
'Indian players in the digital market should not be dominated by global players, and they should not dominate the smaller players -- these discussions are on.'
India's services sector activity eased slightly in March, weighed down by a marginal slowdown in sales amid softer demand conditions and easing inflationary pressures, a monthly survey said on Friday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services PMI Business Activity Index fell from February's reading of 59.0 to 58.5 in March, but remained above its long-run average of 54.2.
Investors should tilt their portfolios towards domestic-facing defensive sectors, which should help provide stability and shield them from geopolitical and tariff risks.
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